How Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Putin Over Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Vladimir Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Reports of an upcoming US-Russia presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
  • Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
  • Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed

The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in the president's attempts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.

While making remarks in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"We have to get the Russian situation done," he declared.

Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing several years.

Less Leverage

According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.

The US president benefited from a long record of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Add in Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an deal.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the war.

Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the nation - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.

Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the war any nearer a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Vladimir Putin's meeting in the summer yielded little tangible outcome.

Putin may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would approve on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards put on hold.

Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader called Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.

The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.

The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.

"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less interested in diplomacy," he said.

Thus, in a short period, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even territory Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.

On the campaign trail last year, Trump promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, saying that ending the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when neither side desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.

Randy Richard
Randy Richard

Tech enthusiast and software developer with a passion for simplifying complex computer concepts for everyday users.