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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although experts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.