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The Ashes may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Aussie side host more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald had his thirty-first birthday a day before the squad was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just before the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Ageing Team Fascination Grows

For a couple of years there has been mounting curiosity with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling unit. It is unusual to have almost every player in a Test side being above thirty, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a problem: a Test squad featuring a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are deep into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Transition Forced by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any team knows that having a batch of similarly-aged players might mean a group of simultaneous departures, but so far change has remained theoretical: a train that would indeed be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, abruptly, transition is upon them, forced upon this Aussie team in the space of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only miss the first Test, was the team management view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the balance experiences a far greater change with two players missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the side. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Test matches entering the attack after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll probably have to be the man up front.

Debutant Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an intimidated youngster, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A full stadium crowd, partly English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories portray him as relaxed. He could be brought onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

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Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is striking is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what new injuries the opening match may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how tricky stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of getting injured early in tournaments and a history of initially small injuries becoming longer layoffs.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the contest may witness the primary four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might see transition setting in much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a excellent day-night Brisbane choice, but after that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has not yet played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this format is no place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it a chance for the visiting team. You can sense that change approaching, coming around the corner, and England hasn't seen the sunshine since they can't recall when.